How Much CO₂ Must Be Removed to Limit Global Warming to 1.5°C?

How Much CO₂ Must Be Removed to Limit Global Warming to 1.5°C?

Climate change is the defining challenge of our time. As the global emission and temperatures continue to rise, the urgency to act has never been greater. This article explores the critical question: How much CO₂ must we remove from the atmosphere to limit global warming to 1.5°C? We'll delve into the Paris Agreement targets, current carbon removal projects, and the diverse strategies being developed to tackle this monumental task.

Table of Contents

1. The Paris Agreement Target
2. The Current State of Carbon Dioxide Removal Projects
3. The Diverse Portfolio of Carbon Removal Strategies
4. The Role of Policy and Investment
5. Final Thoughts

The Paris Agreement Target

In 2015, the Paris Agreement marked a historic milestone in global climate action. Over 190 countries united to sign this landmark pact, committing to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Some of the key objectives are:

• Limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
• Achieve a climate-neutral world by mid-century
• Increase ability to adapt to climate change impacts
• Align financial flows with low-emission, climate-resilient development

To achieve these ambitious goals, the agreement set specific targets:

• Greenhouse gas emissions must reach their highest point no later than 2025.
• Emissions must fall by 43% from 2019 levels by 2030.
• Achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions and removals by 2050.

While the targets are clear, achieving them is complex. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has emphasized that emission reductions alone may not be sufficient. Their scenarios consistent with the 1.5°C target show that removing CO₂ from the atmosphere is critical and complements emission reduction efforts.

A 2018 report from the Global CCS Institute suggested that to limit global warming to 1.5°C, we may need to remove around 10 gigatons of CO₂ per year from the atmosphere by 2050 through carbon removal methods.

The Current State of Carbon Dioxide Removal Projects

As of 2023, global Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) capacity falls significantly short of the levels required to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target. Despite the urgent need for large-scale carbon removal, current projects are achieving only a fraction of the necessary capacity.

The total CDR amounts to approximately 2 billion tons of CO₂ per year, with the majority coming from conventional methods such as reforestation and soil carbon sequestration. Novel CDR methods, including biochar, enhanced rock weathering, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), contribute a mere 1.3 million tonnes per year, less than 0.1% of the total. Even more concerning, permanent removal methods account for only 0.6 million tonnes per year, less than 0.05% of the total.

While conventional CDR methods are well-established, novel approaches are still in the early stages of development and deployment. The sector faces significant challenges, including the high costs of existing technologies and limited large-scale implementation. However, there has been rapid growth in research, public awareness, and start-up companies, with an increasing variety of novel methods attracting investment.

The Diverse Portfolio of Carbon Removal Strategies

Carbon removal strategies can be broadly classified into natural and technological approaches:

‍Nature-based strategies:

1. Afforestation and reforestation: Planting new forests or restoring existing ones to absorb CO₂ through photosynthesis.
2. Soil carbon sequestration: Implementing agricultural practices that increase the amount of carbon stored in soil, such as no-till farming and cover cropping.
3. Wetland restoration: Reviving degraded wetlands to enhance their natural carbon-storing capacity and biodiversity.
4. Agricultural soil management: Adopting practices like crop rotation, reduced tillage, and organic amendments to increase soil carbon content.

Technological strategies:

1. Enhanced weathering: Spreading crushed minerals on land or in oceans to accelerate natural weathering processes that absorb CO₂.
2. Biochar: Producing charcoal-like material from biomass and incorporating it into soil to store carbon and improve soil quality.
3. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): Growing biomass for energy production and capturing the resulting CO₂ emissions for long-term storage.
4. Direct air capture and storage (DACCS): Using machines to extract CO₂ directly from the atmosphere and storing it underground or in long-lasting products.

These diverse strategies offer a range of options for removing CO₂ from the atmosphere, each with its own advantages, challenges, and potential for scaling. A combination of these approaches will likely be necessary to achieve the levels of carbon removal required to meet global climate goals.

The Role of Policies and Investments

The successful deployment of carbon removal strategies hinges not only on technological advancements but also on supportive policies and investments. In Europe, various institutions and countries are taking significant steps in this direction. The European Commission recognizes the crucial role of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) and intends to focus on nature-based options, while the European Parliament has called for prioritizing emissions reductions over CDR, stressing the importance of conserving biodiversity and enhancing natural sinks and reservoirs. For instance, Sweden has implemented a carbon tax, which has been instrumental in reducing emissions and encouraging investment in clean technologies. The United Kingdom has established the Woodland Carbon Code, a voluntary standard for woodland creation projects that sequester carbon, providing a framework for carbon offsetting investments. Meanwhile, Germany's National Hydrogen Strategy aims to develop green hydrogen technologies, which could play a crucial role in carbon removal and storage. These examples demonstrate how policy frameworks and targeted investments can drive innovation and implementation of carbon removal strategies across Europe, setting a precedent for global action in the fight against climate.

Final Thoughts

Addressing the climate crisis is a complex task that requires a multi-faceted approach. There is no single solution to the climate problem. It will take a combination of:

• Reducing emissions
• Adopting sustainable practices
• Utilizing carbon removal technologies

To limit global warming and achieve the goals set out in the Paris Agreement, policymakers, corporations, and individuals all have a crucial role to play. As we continue to develop and implement carbon removal strategies, it's clear that our collective efforts today will shape the climate of tomorrow. This revised version includes a table of contents, a short introduction, and incorporates examples and data to support the information presented. The structure is more organized, making it easier for readers to navigate and engage with the content.